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Author Topic: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
McStackn
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: December 31, 2013, 15:22
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Thanks. I'm min-opening ATC vs both of these players because they fold the blinds oop >80%.

Technically, if pot odds were perfectly eliminated by rake for example, I can't really continue with what he is shoving correct? Each hand I continue with individually has to beat his range, is that right?

Example:

Villain shoves 22+, AT, KQ and there is nothing in the pot and no rake to pay (for simplicity sake). I can only really dive in with 77+, AQ right?

So I can flat with KQ, AT, and AJ I because when I hit a pair I will be good enough to overcome what I lose when I miss?

krcmdc
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: December 31, 2013, 16:32
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Quote from McStackn on December 31, 2013, 15:22

Technically, if pot odds were perfectly eliminated by rake for example, I can't really continue with what he is shoving correct?

I don't understand what you're asking, villain can't shove, so you can't ever continue against his shove.

Quote from McStackn on December 31, 2013, 15:22

Each hand I continue with individually has to beat his range, is that right?

Exactly right.

Quote from McStackn on December 31, 2013, 15:22

Example:

Villain shoves 22+, AT, KQ and there is nothing in the pot and no rake to pay (for simplicity sake). I can only really dive in with 77+, AQ right?

Assuming 77 has at least 50% equity, and 66 does not, then yes.

Quote from McStackn on December 31, 2013, 15:22

So I can flat with KQ, AT, and AJ I because when I hit a pair I will be good enough to overcome what I lose when I miss?

Much wider than just that, but yes, that's more or less the idea. When you call, you keep his range so wide that he's just dead oop postflop, no matter what he does, he simply doesn't have the stack to support the width of the range. Think of it as implied odds, one cbet commits villain, so he has to either cbet/call very light or he has to check/fold a ton of flops. The only way he can win is if he makes you fold too often, so don't fold too often, lol.

McStackn
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: December 31, 2013, 19:28
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Yeah sorry, I meant 3bet, not shove.

He NEVER folds once he 3bets. His post flop aggression frequency is 80%. It's only 80% because he checks the flop with a monster. Otherwise he cbets the flop and the turn cbet is all in. Once he's 3bet, he has seen showdown like 97% of the time. The others must be mis-clicks lol (or when he is deep after winning a hand because he doesn't always rat-hole).

I flat and hit just over a third of the time. Pairs, GS+ overs, FDs, EASDs, Combos, 2P, etc. I figure that range of made hands will have pretty high equity - and his stack goes in every time.

A third of the time I roll with 65% equity in an 80bb pot which is a +24bb result. Two thirds of the time I lose 5bb for a total of -10bb.

+24bb
-10bb
______
+14bb

Holy shit I think I gotta call a lot wider!!!!! No wonder he makes money never folding and 3betting so wide. It's not just me, it seems none of the regs are flatting 3bets enough for "this game".

Besides you, some guy on card runners said I should flat too. I wonder why so many of the winning regs I study and "imitate" don't bother with this.

McStackn
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: December 31, 2013, 19:35
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I should probably flat AQ, considering how it practically flips against his range all in preflop but it does so well playing fit or fold post flop against him. He won't start folding either. I don't think he pays attention to the hand at all. Just bet flop, bet turn, by the time the results show he's 5 tables in the future.

krcmdc
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: December 31, 2013, 22:28
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"Holy shit I think I gotta call a lot wider!!!!!"

Well, I don't know how often you're calling for certain, but knowing you, yes much wider indeed.

I just checked your range, and 77 does not have 50% equity, neither does AQo. Your shoving range should be {88+/AK/AQs} against {22+/AT/KQ}. You should flat 77 and AQo.

PS: You say he always just cbets flop and cbet shoves the turn, but what happens when he cbets the flop and then faces a shove?

My internet is most likely going to die soon, it dies every evening around this time and comes back on in the morning. I'm going to copy these last couple posts and do some work on specific ranges. I'll pm it to you tomorrow or the next day.

McStackn
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: January 1, 2014, 01:26
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He calls. I don't think he looks at his cards or the board.

krcmdc
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: January 1, 2014, 14:09
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lol

I was not sure if we're talking about villain A or villain B, so I just did both:

If it's Villain A then:

Flat: 22-77,A2s-AJs,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,
82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,A2o-AQo,K3o+,Q4o+,J4o+,T5o+,95o+,
84o+,74o+,64o+,53o+

4bet shove: 88+,AQs+,AKo

If Villain B then:

Flat: 22-77,A2s-AJs,K5s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,A7o-AQo,
KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o,98o

4bet shove: 88+,AQs+,AKo

Yes, they're right. But I'd just use the villain B flatting range against either villain. Against villain A you'd be defending ~80% and against villain B you'd be defending ~33%, the 47% difference comes from their sizing and the odds it offers. But even with the great odds villain A offers, that extra 47% that you'd be defending is actually worth very little in terms of EV and it creates a ton of variance. So if you're certain that villain will never fold and never adjust, I wouldn't endure that much variance for so little potential gain.

McStackn
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: June 22, 2014, 00:38
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Turns out at WPN I'm getting an average of 66% folds when I 3-bet shove anywhere from 30-50bb into a 4.5bb pot.

What am I shoving?

I'm looking at the villain's RFI stat for each position and simply shoving 50% of that number with < 35bb stakcs and 25% of that number with 40bb+.

I'm making money with all of my shoving hands which means that this plan is probably not wide enough.

30-40BB Shoving ranges vs RFI

4% QQ
8% 99, AK
12% 77, AQ
16% 55, AJ
20% 44, AJ, KQ
24% 22, AT, KQ
30% 22, A9, KJ, KTs, QJs
40% 22, BW, A9, K9s, KTs, T9s
50% 22, >9, A2, K6s

41-50BB Shoving ranges vs RFI

6% QQ
12% 99, AK
18% 77, AQ
24% 55, AJ
30% 44, AJ, KQ
36% 22, AT, KQ
45% 22, A9, KJ, KTs, QJs
60% 22, BW, A9, K9s, KTs, T9s

(Disclaimer: it takes a lot more than shoving vs an RFI to beat these games.)

krcmdc
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Post Re: KRC need your help to optimize vs certain oppoenents
on: June 22, 2014, 12:46
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If you want something truly accurate, we'll need to know the frequency with which they call your shove, per each RFI. You say they fold 66% "on average", but it wouldn't be accurate to assume someone with a 4% RFI is folding 2/3 of the time you ship a 30bb stack.

On a less accurate note, intuitively I can tell you that you're going to be shoving pretty wide. So wide that they're going to adjust, if not for strategic reasons then for reasons of spite. Basically, shoving as wide as you "could" shove will force them to make the correct adjustment imo. It's going to turn into the sheep shearing vs sheep skinning thing. If you're with the same reg's everyday, and that's who we're talking about here, then I wouldn't try to push as wide as I could. I'd push wide enough to make a nice profit, but not so wide as to bring awareness to it.

Nice to see you're finally using RFI instead of PFR. ;)

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